Emergence and Non-Linearity for Military Decision-Making:
This is an excerpt from a design monograph that addresses design, NATO operational planning and Joint planning methodologies (NATO-OPP, JPP, and various service-specific deviations therein). This monograph is pending publication and was produced through the Joint Special Operations University where the author is a design educator (contractor) for the U.S. Special Operations Command. The title of the monograph is: “Disrupting Modern Military Decision-Making: Deconstructing Institutionalized Rituals through Design Synthesis.” (Follow Ben Zweibelson at Medium to see more on strategic design, war theory, operational planning and military philosophy).
One significant aspect of complexity theory and systemic thinking is that of ‘emergence.’ With the deconstruction of NATO-OPP and JPP already covered in-depth, modern military forces appear to overlook the primary qualities of complex adaptive systems regarding how and why it approaches decision-making and strategic design for military activities. Complexity theory rejects most of the attempts that analytically reductionist models such as COG and SWOT analysis attempt as well as techniques such as CARVER, capabilities/capacity considerations as well as stakeholder analysis, yet modern military decision-making appears to mask the classical mechanics underpinnings by assimilating select terms into…
